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Special Report: The Value Road to Wealth, Part 2
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Paul Tracy
Street Authority.com |
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How Do We Look For Value Stocks?
Unfortunately, there's no predetermined path that will allow you to uncover the best value plays. Investing is always a delicate balance of both art and science.
My staff and I frequently scan the market in search of stocks that we believe offer compelling value. We do so by quantitatively screening for companies that score well in the key valuation and profitability metrics discussed above, as well as a host of other important fundamentals. However, don't assume that a list of names that filter through ratio analysis screening is all that is necessary to outperform the broader market averages. Each stock generated by those screens needs to be carefully evaluated, and a close examination of non-numerical data should also be weighed.
For example, in the Clayton Homes example above, Buffett took a hard look at the company's management team before investing. It's always a good idea to conduct a background check on a firm's executives before investing. What credentials or accomplishments do they bring to the job? Do they have prior industry experience, and if so, is their track record commendable? Have they aligned their interests with the rank and file by purchasing shares in the company?
Next, consideration should also be paid to the company's industry, and whether or not the firm has a recognizable edge over its peers. My staff and I always try to identify distinct and defensible competitive advantages before recommending a company. These advantages could take the shape of a powerful brand name, a unique product, or even a patented technology. Remember, companies with sustainable competitive advantages are much more likely to maintain a high level of profitability than those without them.
It is also a good idea to determine whether a company operates in a cyclical market. Some firms -- such as automakers -- typically see their fortunes rise and fall with changes in the economy. The performance of these firms is often tied to broad macro-economic factors; they may look attractive when times are good, but they're also vulnerable to economic slowdowns. In other words, ask yourself whether or not the company's economic moat is wide enough to protect the firm's profitability under difficult conditions.
Knowledge is power, and it is always important to know as much about a prospective company's operations as possible. This includes a thorough look at its industry, its vendors, its customers, its competitors, etc. Digging through old press releases posted on financial websites like Yahoo Finance is a good starting point. The company's most recent quarterly and annual reports should also be required reading.
Keep in mind, press releases written by a firm's investor relations department will nearly always paint the company's prospects and results in the most favorable light possible. Therefore, it is important to balance that information with objective analysis from other sources.
Remember, the most valuable articles or bits of information can sometimes run contrary to your opinion on a company. In other words, don't fall prey to ignoring possible warning signs simply because they challenge your thesis on a stock; instead try to poke holes in your own arguments. This will help eliminate costly investing mistakes and allow you to invest with more conviction.
Successful value investing doesn't necessarily involve uncovering an abundance of potential picks; the key is to be right when you do find a good one. When you've finally made up your mind, invest with confidence and hold for the long term.
With these points in mind, my staff and I have identified five solid value candidates. Here's a review:
(1.) HARRAH'S ENTERTAINMENT (HET)
Business Overview: Las Vegas may seem like a fun-loving town, but it is also the site of a fierce battle, an ongoing fight between the flashiest resorts to capture the business of a select group of high-rollers -- known in industry parlance as whales. The competition to attract big bettors is cutthroat, and the costs incurred to keep them satisfied are substantial. Nevertheless, upscale properties like the Bellagio and the Venetian are well-known for catering to their every capricious whim. Meanwhile, Harrah's is content to court the business of the average player.
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Harrah's Entertainment (HET) Business: Harrah's is the world's largest and most geographically diversified gaming company.
Competitive Advantages: Harrah's principal strength stems from its invaluable brand loyalty, which the company has worked to cultivate and develop. And, by operating top-tier properties in nearly all of the nation's premier gaming markets, Harrah's customers frequently find themselves at home even while on the road.
Growth Drivers: The pending acquisition of Caesar's Entertainment will provide an even larger foothold in the thriving Las Vegas market, and Harrah's will also have ample opportunity to leverage the surging popularity of poker now that it owns the rights to the World Series of Poker. |
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Current Price: $67.61 Rating: Buy Enterprise Value: $12.5 billion |
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2004 Revenue: $4.55 billion 2004 EPS: $3.26 2005 EPS: $3.67 (est.) 2006 EPS: $4.13 (est.) Five-Year Projected Growth Rate: 15.0% P/E on 2005 EPS: 18.4 52-Week Range: $43.94 - $72.60 |
It has built its strategy around the everyday gambler -- the easy-to-please type who visits frequently and likes the perks of Harrah's "Total Rewards" program. With 28 properties spread throughout 13 states, those customers can rack up points from the Las Vegas strip to the Atlantic City boardwalk and many points in between. In addition to its flagship casino situated at the southern end of the strip, Harrah's also operates casinos in major markets like greater Chicago, Reno/Lake Tahoe, St. Louis, and Tunica, Mississippi. In all, the company boasts 1.7 million square feet of gaming space and more than 17,000 hotel rooms.
Competitive Advantages: Given the recent consolidation, there will soon be only a handful of major players left in the gaming industry -- and after merging with Caesars, Harrah's will emerge as the undisputed leader in the sector, with over 50 properties generating nearly $9 billion in revenues. The addition of names like Bally's and Paris will boost its presence on the red-hot Las Vegas strip, and the acquisition of Horseshoe last summer has already paid dividends in key riverboat markets.
No rival can match the geographic diversity of Harrah's, which insulates the company from a downturn in any one region, and the company's efforts in generating cross-market play are simply unparalleled. Last year, it raked in nearly $1.5 billion (about one-third of overall revenues) from players who were visiting properties other than their "home" casino -- a solid 18% increase from the year before.
Harrah's will soon be a dominant force in the gaming industry, with an enviable portfolio of properties, an established base of loyal customers, and an effective marketing/promotional strategy to ensure that the tables and slots stay filled with eager players.
Growth Drivers: Last July's acquisition of Horseshoe -- which at the time was the nation's largest private gaming company -- has lifted Harrah's to new heights. The purchase single-handedly removed one of Harrah's toughest riverboat competitors, and vaulted the company to the leading position in Chicago, Tunica, and Shreveport/Bossier City, LA -- all lucrative markets where Horseshoe was already firmly entrenched as the top revenue grossing casino.
Harrah's and Horseshoe are two different companies with two very different philosophies. Harrah's floor-space is predominately targeted to slot players. Last year, the company was awarded 252 first-place finishes among surveys of slot players, and those polled voted the company's "Total Rewards" program the best slot club in ten different markets -- including Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Chicagoland, Lake Tahoe, and New Orleans.
Horseshoe, on the other hand, has always been considered friendly towards table players. Owner Jack Binion is renowned for offering table games with attractive odds, generously giving away meals and other "comps", and allowing some of the highest maximum bets to be found in the industry. There was some concern on the part of regular Horseshoe patrons that this unique culture would gradually disappear after the merger, with the despised continuous shuffling machines becoming a common fixture at blackjack tables. (CSM's, which are commonly seen in Harrah's properties, thwart card counting and scare away many card players).
Thus far, though, the integration has proceeded smoothly, and Horseshoe's focus on the table player has only complemented Harrah's slot-oriented business. Furthermore, the move also handed Harrah's the reigns to the World Series of Poker -- a valuable tournament circuit that attracts players nationwide and will culminate in the 36th annual championship later this summer in downtown Las Vegas.
The addition of Horseshoe helped revenues climb 25% last quarter to a record $1.19 billion and was modestly accretive to earnings. That merger pales in comparison, though, to the impending acquisition of Caesar's Entertainment -- one of the most venerable names in the industry. Though the move will saddle Harrah's with a hefty debt load, it will also double the company's property portfolio -- adding 2 million square feet of casino space and 26,000 hotel rooms. Caesar's is coming off a record-breaking quarter, where revenues, earnings, and cash flows all spiked to new highs. Earnings soared to $20 million from an $84 million loss a year ago, on revenues that topped the $1 billion mark. Cash flows, a commonly used gauge of casino profitability, jumped 15% to $216 million, with three of the four core Las Vegas properties posting record results.
With those two acquisitions at the forefront, it can be easy to forget that Harrah's is also reporting strong growth of its own. Same-casino revenues rose 6.5% last year, and the company has now reported a gain in this metric in 23 of the past 24 quarters. With steady organic growth, a new partner on the way, a number of current and future property renovations, and an eye on overseas expansion, Harrah's is poised to deliver solid future growth.
Valuation and Outlook: Harrah's is a fairly leveraged company, and will be taking on even more debt after assuming some $4.2 billion of Caesar's obligations. Nevertheless, the company still sports one of the stronger balance sheets in the industry. Furthermore, it generates sufficient cash flows to maintain a healthy interest coverage, support stock buybacks, and still pay a market-beating 1.9% dividend.
Earnings more than doubled last quarter to $0.68 (or $77 million) from $0.32 the year before, and jumped 23% for the year to $3.26. Aside from the East Region -- which has been impacted by a crippling, but now-resolved labor dispute -- Harrah's posted solid EBITDA gains across the board, ranging from 26.1% in the West to 65% in the South Central. EBITDA margins were also on the rise, expanding more than 110 basis points to 24.26%.
Based on last year's earnings, Harrah's is trading at a trailing multiple of around 21, not rock-bottom, but still well-below the 30 of rival MGM Mirage. Its price/cash flow ratio of 11 is also attractive relative to the industry's 17 and the broader S&P's average of 15.
Management recently caught even optimistic Wall Street analysts off guard by pre-announcing that first quarter earnings would likely fall in a range of $0.95-$0.99 -- handily topping consensus forecasts by more than a dime and outpacing last year's bottom line results by 25%-30%. The full-year picture is also bright, with solid double-digit growth in the cards.
We believe Harrah's represents a compelling value, the company is clearly on a roll, but the winning streak is showing no signs of slowing down.
(2.) CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL (COF)
Business Overview: Consumers seem to be showing less financial restraint than ever, and credit card companies are reaping the rewards. Last year, they raked in an aggregate $24 billion in credit card fees, on top of the $80 billion they collected in interest charges. Capital One is riding this wave as fast as anyone; the McLean, VA-based company has grown to become the nation's fifth largest credit card issuer, and is now closing in on 50 million accounts.
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Capital One Financial (COF) Business: Capital One is a major consumer lender and one of the nation's largest issuers of Visa and MasterCard credit cards -- with nearly 50 million accounts and $80 billion in managed loans.
Competitive Advantages: After acquiring Hibernia, Capital One has access to a cheap source of funds to support its global lending operations. Its IBS software helps maximize profits and reduce defaults by accurately profiling customers' credit risk.
Growth Drivers: With credit card issuance slowing, Capital One has branched out into auto loans and will also be developing a home equity line. The Hibernia purchase provides a retail outlet and sales force to help market its products. |
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Current Price: $73.00 Rating: Buy Enterprise Value: $34.5 billion |
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2004 Revenue: $4.8 billion 2004 EPS: $6.22 2005 EPS: $6.92 2006 EPS: $7.72 Five-Year Projected Growth: 13.0% P/E on 2005 EPS: 10.5 52-Week Range: $61.15 - $84.75 |
Following its founding in the mid-1990's, Capital One has spent the past decade rapidly building its customer base, in the process growing its earnings at a rapid 28% annual clip. Over the last five years, the company has more than doubled its share of the credit card market. The company used to primarily target sub-prime customers -- a market segment that commanded steeper interest rates, but also carried a much higher chance of default. When sweeping regulatory changes in 2001 forced lenders to increase their reserves, Capital One made a strategic decision to shift its focus on more creditworthy borrowers in the prime and super-prime segments.
Today, the company has branched out into other areas, with credit cards, global financial services, and auto loans representing 61%, 27%, and 13% respectively of last year's loan portfolio.
Competitive Advantages: Capital One faces stiff competition from larger financial institutions, but the firm's Information Based Strategy (IBS), a proprietary database of consumer statistics, provides an edge in targeting, pricing, and collecting from consumers. IBS helps profile prospective customers, assess their credit risk, and price loans accordingly. This helps maximize profits and keep default risk to a minimum. Also, the firm has been able to successfully track down its own bad debt, rather than sell it to collection agencies for pennies-on-the-dollar.
Furthermore, most of Capital One's operations are handled online, which allows it to bypass some of the overhead costs that its traditional brick-and-mortar competitors must pay. Finally, the company has committed tremendous resources -- a 20% increase to $1.3 billion last year alone -- to marketing efforts, and aside from attracting more customers, the Capital One brand name now enjoys global recognition.
Growth Drivers: Since its IPO in 1994, Capital One has seen nothing but annual improvements in both earnings and loan growth without exception. Last year, the company kept its streak intact, with earnings marching 28% to $6.21 and managed loans growing by 12% to reach $80 billion. At the same time, delinquency rates dropped 64 basis points to 3.82%, and charge-offs fell by nearly a full point. While competition and saturation are keeping credit card growth in check, the company still has much to look forward to.
Perhaps seeing how successfully Bank of America and others promoted credit cards from within their bank branches, Capital One followed suit by acquiring Hibernia last month in a $5.3 billion deal. The New-Orleans-based bank handles one quarter of every dollar deposited in the state of Louisiana, and after merging with Coastal Bancorp, also has extensive operations in many fast-growing Texas markets.
With direct marketing not as effective as it once was, the purchase now gives Capital One a retail platform to sell its credit cards. Cross-selling opportunities are abundant in bank branches, and the company has also announced plans to expand into debit cards and home equity lines of credit.
Most importantly, it will have access to Hibernia's $17.3 billion in deposits, which it can tap as a cheap source of funding. Of those assets, $3.3 billion are non-interest bearing, and the overall cost of the deposits stands at less than 1.5%. By contrast, Capital One has historically had to pay in excess of 4% for the money market, savings, and CD assets that it gathers. The cheaper pool of funds should help widen the spread -- which will expand Capital One's already healthy margins. A rising interest rate environment will also be favorable, as the company can quickly adjust to reflect changes in the prime rate.
Valuation and Outlook: By nearly any measure, Capital One looks cheap on both an absolute and relative basis. Over the past five years, its trailing P/E ratio has fluctuated between 7 and 35 -- and today it sits near the low-end of that range at 12. The company also generates mountains of free cash flow, and trades at an EV/FCF ratio of only 8.
From a forward-looking standpoint the company appears even more attractive, with a PEG ratio of just 0.86 and a single digit P/E based on next year's robust earnings. Thereafter, loans and earnings are both expected to continue climbing at double-digit rates over the next five years.
Capital One, now a top 10 consumer lender after the Hibernia acquisition, trades at a significant discount to its peers. An expansion to the average industry multiple of 17 would translate to a price target of $105 based on last year's earnings -- about 40% above current levels.
(3.) TIMBERLAND (TBL)
Business Overview Timberland produces a line of shoes designed mainly for outdoor and adventure enthusiasts. In addition, the company recently expanded its footwear lines to include work boots and shoes designed for professionals. All told, footwear accounts for about 75% of company sales.
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Timberland (TBL) Business: Timberland is a leading manufacturer of shoes and apparel designed for the outdoors enthusiast.
Competitive Advantage: The company has developed strong brand name recognition in the outdoor shoe market, a small, but rapidly growing niche. Its popular products typically command premium prices.
Growth Drivers: Timberland has 135 stores in Europe and Asia, and its international sales have been growing twice as quickly as those stateside. This trend should continue as the company expands its overseas presence. |
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Current Price: $69.10 Rating: Buy Enterprise Value: $2.1 billion |
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2004 Revenue: $1.50 billion 2004 EPS: $4.30 2005 EPS: $4.81 2006 EPS: $5.33 Five-Year Projected Growth: 13.5% P/E on 2005 EPS: 14.4 52-Week Range: $52.59 - $74.10 |
The remaining quarter comes from apparel. Specifically, the company produces a line of apparel aimed at the outdoor market and designed to complement its footwear lines.
Timberland distributes the majority of its goods to third-party retailers. The company also operates a chain of stand-alone retail stores that it uses to sell its merchandise directly to the public.
Competitive Advantages The footwear business is highly competitive. However, Timberland has carved out a very powerful brand in a specific niche market. As with all consumer franchises, branding is key. Consumers will pay a premium price for their favored brands, yielding higher margins for the best names. And while it's easy to make shoes, it's hard to re-create a brand image in consumers' minds.
Year after year, Timberland's rugged shoe designs score high among outdoor enthusiasts. The company has focused almost exclusively on this market since its founding in 1973. Advertising for the shoes features a host of hiking and camping scenes, reinforcing that image.
Although the outdoor shoe market is smaller than that of athletic shoes, the market is growing rapidly. And, more importantly, there is less competition in this specialized niche. While Nike, Reebok and Adidas duke it out in the massive athletic shoe market, it would be tough for these company's to tackle the outdoor market where they have no existing brand awareness.
Growth Drivers Overseas markets remain the most exciting avenue of growth for Timberland. Currently, less than 40% of Timberland's sales come from outside the U.S. market. However, this aspect of the business is growing far faster than domestic sales.
In recent quarters, for example, sales internationally have been growing about twice as fast as U.S. sales in constant dollar terms (adjusting for changes in the value of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies).
Timberland already boasts over 135 stores in Europe and Asia. However, that merely marks the very beginning of the company's overseas expansion. For example, Timberland opened up a new procurement center in Hong Kong to help serve the rapidly expanding Asian marketplace.
My staff and I are particularly interested in potential growth from key Asian markets like China and India. American consumer goods like Coca-Cola have already seen solid growth in this region. And Timberland's existing success in Europe and Asia proves the company's appeal extends far beyond U.S. borders. We believe these nations will become even more important markets for the company as consumers in the region become wealthier and start demanding more expensive western goods.
Valuation and Outlook Timberland is a prodigious cash generator. The company offers an operating cash flow yield of about 8% -- a ratio that has been remarkably constant over the past few years (even in the depths of the 2001/2002 recession). Operating cash flow has grown at an average annualized rate of over +50% in the past three years.
The company has a rock-solid balance sheet with about $9 in cash per share and absolutely no debt. This will make it easy for Timberland to expand overseas using internally generated cash. In addition, Timberland has been aggressively buying back stock in an effort to return additional value to shareholders.
On an earnings basis, Timberland has historically traded with a PEG close to 1.0 and at a sizeable discount to competitors like Nike. Looking forward, Timberland should earn close to $9 per share by 2010. Using Nike's average P/E ratio of between 14 and 18 would yield a price target of between $125 and $160 per share.
What's more, we believe there are two potential kickers for Timberland. First, the company's solid brand and strong balance sheet make it an attractive takeover target. We wouldn't be surprised to see a company like Nike decide to expand into outdoor footwear by purchasing Timberland. Secondly, thanks to the company's strong cash flows, the firm is capable of paying a nice dividend. With the new tax laws in place, dividend payments have become an even more attractive option for U.S. firms. As such, Timberland could potentially initiate quarterly dividends sometime in the near future. A solid dividend yield would make TBL even more appealing to investors.
(4.) COCA-COLA (KO)
Business Overview Coca-Cola is the world's largest producer of carbonated soft drinks. The company's signature Coke brand is well recognized by literally billions of consumers, and Coke is sold in almost every country in the world -- more than 200 countries worldwide.
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Coca-Cola (KO) Business Overview: The world's largest producer of carbonated soft drinks.
Competitive Advantages: The Coca Cola name is globally recognized and respected, and consumers are willing to pay premium prices for its products.
Growth Drivers: Flavored drinks are proving to be a source of new growth for the company, but Coke's real future lies in continued aggressive expansion in international markets. |
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Current Price: $41.29 Rating: Buy Enterprise Value: $101.8 billion |
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2004 Revenue: $22 billion. 2004 EPS: $2.00 2005 EPS: $2.06 2006 EPS: $2.24 Five-Year Projected Growth: 8.0% P/E on 2005 EPS: 20 52-Week Range: $38.30 - $53.50 |
In addition to its core Coke brand, the company also sells Dasani bottled water, Sprite, Minute Maid and a host of other soft drinks. Drinks are sold both directly to consumers in cans and bottles, as well as in syrup form to bars, restaurants and other commercial establishments.
Competitive Advantages Coca-Cola sells a very simple product. Contrary to popular belief, the company's beverage recipe isn't really much of a secret: Coke is made of water mixed with corn syrup and a host of artificial flavorings. So why then is KO able to sell an aluminum can full of simple ingredients that cost just a few cents for $0.50 or more?
The reason is simple: branding. Consumers reach for Coke beverages time and again because they recognize the firm's brand name. The brand is so well known, in fact, that it's often used to describe cola drinks in general. Although similar private-label store cola brands generally sell for much less, consumers have shown a willingness to pay a premium price for Coke's well-recognized brand.
And that's not true just in the U.S. -- Coke has been peddling its wares internationally for decades. Even consumers in developing countries are very familiar with the firm's brand. It would be difficult for any competitor to match Coke's brand equity worldwide. Coke has been around for about a century and it has taken years for the firm to develop a truly global brand and reputation. Brand names with that sort of staying power are very difficult to duplicate, giving Coke a distinct, lasting advantage over the competition.
Growth Drivers My staff and I see two major growth drivers for Coke. One is the flavored Colas that the company has been launching over the past several quarters, including Vanilla Coke, as well as Coca-Cola with Lime. These new flavors have proven popular among consumers, and Coke has been able to leverage its core Coke brand to create instant recognition for these Cola flavors. These newer brands should help breathe some life into sales in developed markets.
However, international sales will prove to be the key to future growth over the long term. Coke has been very aggressive globally, acquiring brands in markets like Russia, Bulgaria and Kenya. It has also aggressively marketed and slightly altered the formula of its basic Coke brand to fit local tastes.
As nations become wealthier, consumers tend to buy more packaged foods and drinks. This bodes well for Coke. For example, by grabbing Russia's second-largest fruit juice maker, Coke has managed to capture a great local distribution network and a solid local brand in this fast-growing nation. As Russia develops, Coke will have a strong foothold in this fast-growing market.
It should come as little surprise that Coke's sales are growing much faster in these foreign markets than in the U.S. In recent quarters developed markets like Germany in the U.S. have seen slow sales growth or, in some cases, outright sales declines. But internationally case volumes jumped a solid +2 to +4%, led by such markets as Russia, China and Brazil.
Valuation and Outlook After falling steadily over the past few years, Coke is now starting to look more and more like a classic value stock. We believe the recent share price pullback is unjustified, as Wall Street has not carefully considered the potential for faster-than-expected growth from new, innovative products, as well as from booming overseas markets.
Coke also wins points for being one of the most cash generative companies on Earth -- the company pulled in nearly $6 billion in operating cash flow over the past year. This strong cash flow has allowed Coke to aggressively repurchase shares and, more recently, raise its annual dividend payout to $1.12 per share.
(5.) SAUCONY (SCNYB)
Business Overview Saucony designs and sells footwear and athletic apparel under four main brand names: Saucony, Saucony Originals, Hind and Spot-Bilt. Although the company sells some casual footwear, its main focus is clearly on athletics and, in particular, running and walking shoes for both men and women. That includes shoes with highly specialized features, such as arch and ankle support for runners experiencing foot pain.
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Saucony (SCNYB) Business Overview: Saucony designs and markets athletic footwear and related apparel.
Competitive Advantages: Saucony has cultivated a loyal following, and carved out an impressive niche for running shoes.
Growth Drivers: Going forward, the company should see sales on the rise as exposure increases at the retail level, and margins should expand thanks to a changing product mix. |
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Current Price: $22.68 Rating: Buy Enterprise Value: N/A |
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2004 Revenue: $166.2 million 2004 EPS: $1.52 2005 EPS: $1.44 2006 EPS: N/A Five-Year Projected Growth: N/A P/E Based on 2005 EPS: 15.8 52-Week Range: $18.57 - $28.75 |
Outside the running shoe business, Saucony also produces specialized shoe products like soccer and football cleats. Meanwhile, through its Hind brand name the company sells athletic apparel such as sports bras and sweat-resistant shirts.
Competitive Advantages The shoe and athletic apparel business is loaded with competitors, many of which are much larger than Saucony -- Nike and Reebok, among others, spring to mind. Despite this, however, Saucony's competitive moat is a lot wider than you might at first imagine.
More specifically, the company has garnered a solid reputation and a loyal, almost cult-like following among a core base of devoted running fans. This highly profitable niche business isn't fully exploited by the big athletic shoe manufacturers. And because reputation and brand loyalty among the most committed athletes is high, it would be very difficult for the likes of Nike to attack this niche effectively.
One of the easiest ways to gauge the strength of a consumer brand franchise is to watch trends at the retail level. Specifically, watch how many retailers stock a particular brand and what a retailer's perception of the brand is. On both measures, Saucony scores well. A poll conducted by Sports Marketing Survey at the end of 2004 showed that 62% of the retailers surveyed had decided to carry Saucony's running shoe brands, up +11% from 2003 levels. That represented the largest jump in retail penetration among any running shoe brand. Even better, most retailers reported that they planned to stock more of Saucony's products in 2005.
As for brand perception, the same survey was enlightening. Over 90% of retailers characterized Saucony's brands as "performance" running shoes. That number was up well over +30% from what the same survey revealed in 2000. These strong numbers are a testament to Saucony's strong brand reputation in the high-performance athletic shoe business.
Growth Drivers Going forward, Saucony's growth will be fueled by two main factors: an improving product mix and increased retail store penetration.
On the retail side, as we explained above, it's clear that more retailers are stocking Saucony brands. Simply put, that means that the company is putting its products in front of more and more consumers every year. And this trend could carry on for some time.
Although over 60% of retailers carried Saucony products in 2004, it's not difficult to imagine that figure eventually jumping up to over 90%, especially given the popularity of the firm's brands. This increased exposure should result in higher sales in the years ahead.
But equally important is the company's changing product mix. Saucony has experienced greater demand for its specialized running shoes than its more traditional cross-trainer lines, which it markets mainly under its "Saucony Originals" line.
High-performance lines carry fatter profit margins than simple cross-trainers. That should come as little surprise, as there is far more competition in the cross-trainer business than in the more specialized niche running shoe business. The fact that the company is seeing its fastest sales growth from higher-margins shoes is a major positive, and this change in mix has been behind Saucony's consistent margin expansion over the past several quarters.
Bottom line: Saucony is set to experience higher sales growth due to better exposure. And because the company's business mix is shifting toward more lucrative running shoes, each dollar in incremental sales will result in greater profits for shareholders.
Acquisition Target? In August 2004, Saucony retained an investment bank, Chesnut Securities, to explore the possibility of selling the company. Although no reported bidders have emerged since that time, we believe the company will likely be taken over in the future..
There are several potential suitors for Saucony. Sporting products group K2 (KTO) has a nice stable of brand names targeted at more serious athletes in a number of different sports. That includes Rawlings baseball equipment, Phlueger fishing rods and a line of ski equipment. Saucony's running shoes might well be a logical fit in this empire, and given that KTO is about 3 times Saucony's size by market capitalization, the firm could probably afford SCNYB. KTO has also been a very aggressive acquirer of high-end sporting brands in recent years, so we know the company's management is on the prowl for acquisitions.
Even more obvious candidates include Nike (NKE) and Reebok (RBK), two multi-billion dollar shoe giants with plenty of cash to buy a small-cap name like Saucony. Both Nike and Reebok have tried to break into the high-end shoe market and have product offerings in that segment. Saucony's brand name would be a valuable addition. What's more, NKE and RBK have the scale and distribution network to ensure prominent placement of Saucony's products in major retail outlets around the country.
Valuation and Outlook Wall Street analyst coverage of Saucony is virtually nonexistent. In fact, there are no published earnings estimates for this relatively unknown firm. As a result, institutional players own less than 15% of the company's outstanding shares -- an unusually low figure, even for a small-cap stock like Saucony. This should be a huge positive for the stock in the years ahead -- as institutions catch on to the company's impressive growth story, they're likely to start buying up shares.
My staff and I believe that Saucony can post earnings growth in the +20% to +25% range throughout the next several years. Although that's slightly below the growth rate the company has experienced over the past few years, it's considerably higher than the industry average. By comparison, analysts expect Reebok (RBK) to post long-term growth of around +14% and for Nike (NKE) to deliver annual earnings gains of closer to +13.5% --fully 10 percentage points less than Saucony.
Despite the firm's much stronger growth profile, however, Saucony has tended to trade at a steep discount to the likes of Nike and Reebok. On a price-to-earnings basis (P/E) that discount has been as high as 50% over the last few years. We think this valuation disparity will disappear in the years ahead as Wall Street finally gives Saucony the exposure and recognition that it deserves. In the meantime, investors have a great opportunity to snap up a high-growth stock at a bargain price. And in the event of a takeover, we feel Saucony could earn a multiple of about 25X earnings, in-line with its long-term growth rate. That implies a valuation north of $40 per share.
Thank you for reading today's special in-depth research report -- "The Value Road to Wealth." Please stay tuned for our next regular Market Advisor issue, which we'll publish on Monday, May 2nd. |